Spotting the Danger Zone: Forecasting Financial Crises With Classification Tree Ensembles and Many Predictors
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Spotting the danger zone - Forecasting financial crises with classification tree ensembles and many predictors
To improve the detection of the economic ”danger zones” from which severe banking crises emanate, this paper introduces classification tree ensembles to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that their out-of-sample performance in forecasting binary banking crisis indicators surpasses current best-practice early warning systems based on logit models by a substantial margin. I obtain...
متن کاملFinancial Crises and Political Crises∗
The simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises is studied in an open economy model. Political crises accompany default in equilibrium because of an information transmission conflict between the government and the public. Multiple equilibria are possible: if foreign lenders are pessimistic about the country’s stability, they demand a high interest on the debt, exacerbat...
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متن کاملAppendix to "Financial Crises and Political Crises"
PBE Type i: Neither default nor political crisis If V ≤ χL, the costs of default are always larger than the costs of servicing the debt even for the benevolent government. Then in equilibrium, the government proposes to service the debt, which is accepted by the representative agent. Hence the debt is repaid and political crisis is avoided. Neither the benevolent government nor the self interes...
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Sentiment classification is a special task of text classification whose objective is to classify a text according to the sentimental polarities of opinions it contains e.g., favorable or unfavorable, positive or negative. This is especially a problem for the tweets sentiment analysis. Since the topics in Twitter are very diverse, it is impossible to train a universal classifier for all topics. ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Applied Econometrics
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0883-7252,1099-1255
DOI: 10.1002/jae.2525